August 31, 2026 | LPL Research

Should the recent value rotation be viewed as a regime shift-driven change in market preference, or a simple reversal trade? We think there is a compelling case to be made for the former. In a regime of higher interest rates and stubbornly above-target inflation, the market is increasingly focused on capex intensity, free cash flow conversion, and the cost of capital. Therefore, it makes sense that companies with visible cash generation have broadly regained relative appeal. This does not mean “growth” stocks cannot work. After all, growth is a core component of determining intrinsic value for a diligent stock operator. It simply means investors are less willing to pay premium multiples for earnings streams that require rising amounts of reinvestment to sustain in a “higher for longer” interest rate environment.

August 24, 2026 | LPL Research

Second quarter earnings results — and it seems fair to call them a blowout — have increased our confidence that the earnings outlook can support stocks over the balance of 2026. Not only has the pace of earnings growth surprised us (we expected a percentage increase in the high 20s), but the guidance was good enough for analysts to raise estimates for the second half and 2027.

August 17, 2026 | LPL Research

Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe, while activity across several large emerging markets has cooled from the rapid pace seen earlier this year. Against this backdrop, investors must also contend with lingering vulnerabilities in the global financial system, including Japan's outsized role as one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities, a reminder that shifts in monetary policy or investor behavior abroad can have far-reaching consequences.

August 10, 2026 | LPL Research

The municipal bond market enters the second half of 2026 in a familiar but underappreciated position: absorbing record supply, supported by resilient demand, and operating under a Fed that we expect to remain on hold for the balance of the year. That combination doesn't produce dramatic price returns, and it doesn't need to. 

August 3, 2026 | LPL Research

The S&P 500 settled a whirlwind July moderately lower but maintained healthy year-to-date gains. Just one month into the second half, some of our key market themes cited in LPL's Midyear Outlook 2026 wasted no time making themselves known.

July 27, 2026 | LPL Research

The hyperscaler AI capex cycle is not easily classified as either a bubble or a straightforward software growth story. The more useful framing is that the largest cloud platforms have become something of a hybrid business model that is part software platform, part digital infrastructure network, part capital-intensive industrial system. Our hypothetical “average hyperscaler” scenario analysis provides just a few directions this hybrid business model could go in terms of returns on invested capital. 

July 20, 2026 | LPL Research

The broader energy picture, however, was more nuanced. Natural gas imports climbed to a five-month high and coal imports also surged after mine-safety inspections constrained domestic output following a major accident earlier this year. The divergence between collapsing crude imports and stronger purchases of natural gas and coal highlights an economy that is still grappling with pockets of weak industrial and consumer activity, even as electricity demand reaches record levels during the summer months.

July 13, 2026 | LPL Research

Coming into 2026, we expected inflation to move closer to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, the Fed to cut rates by roughly 75 basis points (bps), and Treasury yields to drift lower. Instead, the first half delivered three stress tests in rapid succession: a leadership change at the Fed, a geopolitical shock that sent oil prices and yields surging, and an AI buildout that is having a measurable impact on the corporate bond market — with the Fed leadership transition among one of our key themes for the balance of the year. 

June 29, 2026 | LPL Research

A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.

June 22, 2026 | LPL Research

Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the FOMC, has long been critical of forward guidance, which is the Fed’s practice of explicitly signaling the future path of interest rates (e.g., “rates will stay low for an extended period” or publishing a projected path for policy rates). His concern is that the guidance could give the impression that policymakers might have a high degree of confidence about the future path of the economy and rates. Warsh tends to view this as misleading since macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation shocks, are inherently uncertain, so locking in a path risks being wrong.

June 15, 2026 | LPL Research

The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market appears to be entering one of its most consequential periods in years. After a long drought following the 2021 issuance boom, a healthier macro backdrop, improved risk appetite, and a long queue of mature private companies have reopened the new-issue window. 

June 8, 2026 | LPL Research

Since the onset of the Iran conflict (through last Friday’s close), the U.S. Treasury curve has experienced a meaningful bear flattening with front end yields rising more than back-end yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has increased by approximately 60 basis points (bps), while the 2-year yield has risen by 77 bps. These moves represent a swift repricing that incorporates several factors: rising inflation expectations tied to energy price volatility, an increase in compensation demanded for uncertainty (known as term premia); and a fundamental reassessment of the path for short-term policy rates.